Sunday’s legislative elections in Italy have the potential to make history by electing the nation’s first female prime minister to lead its most right-wing administration since World War Two.
Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (FdI), a nationalist party, received just 4% of the vote in 2018, but is predicted to receive about 25% of the vote this time, giving a coalition of conservative allies a substantial legislative majority.
In Italy, there is a mentality that says “let’s try her now, we’ve tried everyone else,” according to Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of the political risk advisory firm Teneo.
If the tough-talking Meloni is successful, she will have to deal with a number of difficult obstacles, such as rising energy prices, a crushing mountain of debt, a potential recession, and an increasingly hazardous conflict in Ukraine.
There will be a lot of expectations placed on the 45-year-old Rome resident who is vowing to crack down on immigration and reduce taxes.
International investors regarded Mario Draghi, the outgoing prime minister and internationally renowned former president of the European Central Bank, as a comforting figure until he resigned in July due to a revolt inside his national unity government.
Meloni, unlike the leaders of every other significant party, declined to join Draghi’s alliance and instead watched her popularity soar from the opposition benches where she skillfully criticised the costly steps the government implemented to address the COVID-19 situation.
Meloni is a wonderful communicator but has little experience and a tight budget, so Piccoli predicted that she won’t have a lengthy honeymoon.
Additionally, Meloni may have a significantly lower majority than predicted when a polling blackout went into effect on September 9 or possibly come up just short, paving the stage for the kind of political instability that frequently plagues Italy.
Ten days ago, the right-wing coalition, which consists of Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and Matteo Salvini’s League, was projected to receive about 45% of the vote, which would give them a majority of seats in parliament (more than 60%).
However, since then, there has been considerable speculation that the left-leaning 5-Star Movement has gained ground while Salvini’s League, which is always under fire for its long-standing ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has fallen behind.
The fact that voters will choose a parliament with fewer seats—the lower house will have 400 seats instead of 630, and the Senate will have 200 instead of 315—adds to the uncertainty. This makes it more difficult to predict the outcome.
Because of the FdI’s neo-fascist roots and its ties to Hungary’s nationalist leader Viktor Orban, who has been accused by the European Union of violating the rule of law, the main centre-left Democratic Party has frequently advised against electing Meloni.
Meloni has downplayed her own far-right heritage, claiming that her organisation is a mainstream force similar to the Conservative Party in Britain and that she fully supports Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
However, since then, there has been considerable speculation that the left-leaning 5-Star Movement has gained ground while Salvini’s League, which is always under fire for its long-standing ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has fallen behind.
She said at a rally earlier this week, “I dream of a country where people who have had to bow their heads for many years, pretending that they have different opinions so as not to be ostracised, can now express what they think.“
Voting is open from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. on Sunday (0500-2100 GMT), with final results due on Monday.
Even if the outcome is clear-cut, the incoming administration is unlikely to be in place before the end of October because the new parliament won’t convene until October 13.
Featured Image: Wikimedia Commons
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